Bo Tefu | California Black Media
New Poll Shows Gender Divide Among Black Voters in California as 2026 Primary Approaches
A new statewide survey of California voters reveals a notable gender divide among Black voters, with Black men more likely than Black women to lean Republican ahead of the 2026 primary election.
The findings come from the 2026 California Voter Index baseline survey, conducted March 12–17 among 2,000 likely voters by EVITARUS, a Black-and-Latina-women-led research firm. The poll offers an early snapshot of voter sentiment as campaigns for governor begin to intensify.
“This morning, we have publicly released a baseline survey of the race for Governor,” said Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party. “Candidates for Governor and their supporters are now fully ramping up their campaigns, voters are now beginning to pay more attention, and we expect additional movement in the coming weeks.”
While the broader electorate still leans Democratic — with 31% identifying as strong Democrats compared to 16% as strong Republicans — the survey highlights shifting dynamics within key demographic groups.
Among Black voters, who make up 8% of the sample, the data indicates they remain overwhelmingly Democratic as a whole. However, men are more likely to identify with or lean toward the Republican Party than women. Black women, by contrast, favor Democrats at higher rates.
Although the poll does not provide a detailed percentage breakdown between Black men and women, the topline finding reflects a gender gap that mirrors broader national trends, where political preferences among male and female voters have increasingly diverged across racial and ideological lines.
Overall, the survey points to a competitive political environment heading into the primary election, which will be held on June 2. Eighty-six percent of respondents said they are certain to vote, signaling strong turnout expectations. At the same time, 52% of voters said the state is on the wrong track, compared to 33% who believe it is headed in the right direction.
The governor’s race remains unsettled, with no clear frontrunner. Republican candidate Steve Hilton leads with 16%, followed by Republican Chad Bianco at 14%. Democratic candidates Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter and Tom Steyer each received about 10% support. Nearly a quarter of voters remain undecided.
As campaigns ramp up, shifts within demographic groups — including Black voters — could play a decisive role in shaping outcomes in what is expected to be a crowded and closely watched race.
Asm. McKinnor Introduces New Plan to Protect Renters, Bring Down Housing Costs
Assemblymember Tina McKinnor (D-Inglewood) unveiled a three-bill legislative package last week aimed at reducing housing costs, protecting renters from financial exploitation, and ensuring safe living conditions across California.
The package, which includes Assembly Bill (AB) 1963, AB 2350, and AB 2616, addresses high rental application fees, predatory “Rent Now, Pay Later” lending schemes, and extreme indoor heat in residential units.
“California renters are being squeezed at every turn, from application fees to predatory lending to unsafe living conditions,” McKinnor said on March 24. “This legislative package is about putting money back in renters’ pockets and ensuring that every Californian has access to safe, stable, and affordable housing.”
AB 1963 seeks to lower upfront rental costs by requiring landlords to accept reusable Portable Tenant Screening Reports, capping screening fees, and mandating disclosure of all application requirements. Reports can be reused for up to 45 days, helping renters avoid repeated fees when applying for multiple units.
AB 2350 targets high-interest, short-term rent-based lending products that can trap tenants in cycles of debt. The bill bans these predatory services, holds landlords and lenders accountable, and empowers state regulators and renters to enforce protections. Nearly 79% of extremely low-income renters face severe cost burdens, making this measure a critical step toward financial stability.
AB 2616 establishes statewide standards for safe indoor temperatures, requiring units to remain below 82 degrees during extreme heat. The bill prohibits landlords from passing the cost of cooling upgrades onto tenants, allows renters to install their own cooling devices, and sets compliance timelines starting in 2028. The measure aims to protect vulnerable communities from heat-related illnesses and fatalities.
Together, these bills represent a comprehensive approach to housing affordability by addressing costs, financial exploitation, and basic living conditions. They are part of Democratic efforts to tackle California’s escalating housing crisis.
The Assembly is expected to consider the measures this spring.
McKinnor said the legislation is intended to give renters a fairer shot at housing and ensure their homes are safe. She emphasized that the package is about more than rent. It is designed to protect residents, reduce unnecessary costs, and make housing more secure for all Californians.
Tony Thurmond Testifies on Plan to Move Education Dept Under Gov’s Office
California State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond raised concerns about a proposal to move the state’s education department under the governor’s office, while policy researchers argued the current system is too fragmented to deliver consistent results for students.
The debate took place March 25 during an Assembly Committee on Education Informational Hearing, where lawmakers examined whether restructuring governance could improve how education policies are implemented across the state.
Thurmond told lawmakers he has not seen evidence that the proposed shift would lead to better outcomes for students.
“I don’t think that the proposal is a bad thing,” he said, noting greater gubernatorial focus on education could be beneficial. However, he added, “what I cannot find is any explanation about why and how this will benefit student outcomes.”
Thurmond warned that structural changes alone would not drive improvement.
“Making this shift alone will not make student outcomes better,” Thurmond said, emphasizing that the proposal does not include new funding or program investments.
Instead, Thurmond urged lawmakers to focus on proven strategies such as early literacy and closing achievement gaps.
“If you want to make impact, look to the things that are proven, like making sure that every single student knows how to read by third grade,” he said.
Seth Bramble, legislative advocate for the California Teachers Association (CTA), said his organization has a number of concerns.
“First of all, teachers report that guidance from the California Department of Education is often unavailable when it’s needed,” he said. “The question that we ask, how does this governance proposal address the need for timely, actionable guidance?”
Bramble says there is also a capacity issue — more so than a funding one. “
“The California Teachers Association has significant questions about the current governance proposal and related budget trailer bill language,” he said. “While the California Department of Education has room for improvement, we question whether this proposal addresses the real issues. Teachers ask us, what are the duties of the newly envisioned superintendent?”
Jeannie Myung, a researcher with Policy Analysis for California Education, presented findings suggesting California’s governance system is misaligned with its policy goals.
She said strong education policies often fall short during implementation.
“Even when the state adopted bold student-centered policies, implementation frequently fell short of the policy’s potential for students,” Myung said.
Her report found that California’s system includes many actors with overlapping roles, which can create confusion and weaken accountability.
“When everyone is in charge, no one is in charge,” she said, calling for clearer responsibilities across agencies.
Myung added that aligning the California Department of Education (CDE) more closely with the State Board could help connect policy decisions with implementation, though she acknowledged structural changes alone would not solve broader challenges.
Thurmond also raised concerns about the impact on the Department of Education, citing staff uncertainty and long-term underfunding. He urged lawmakers to invest in the agency instead of restructuring it.
